Critic’s Notebook: Emmys’ Fond Farewells, Plus Early Predictions

Matt Roush July 12, 2023, 2:30 pm

'Abbott Elementary,' 'Succession,' and 'Beef' — ABC/Matt Sayles; Courtesy of HBO; Courtesy of Netflix

Maybe next year’s Emmy nominations will open the door a bit wider for new talent — because this year it’s all about the veterans who are taking a final bow. And they won’t be back in 2024.

That’s the takeaway from this year’s nominations, where three of the five top contenders in comedy and drama are from shows who went out on a high: Succession leading the pack with 27, with the (presumably) final season of Ted Lasso the most-nominated comedy with 21, followed by the swan song of Prime Video’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel at 14. (In between were two HBO mega-hits: The Last of Us with 24 nominations and Season 2 of The White Lotus with 14.)

When shows are this dominant — as an example, the White Lotus cast accounts for nine of the 16 nominations in the drama supporting categories — there’s not a lot of room for much else to break through. But there were a few surprises, including Freevee’s reality-comedy spoof Jury Duty cracking into the Best Comedy category, with a supporting nod to James Marsden for playing himself.

Here’s a quick annotated rundown of top scripted categories, acknowledging a few pleasant surprises and some regrettable omissions:

Drama Series

The HBO triumvirate (Succession, The Last of Us, The White Lotus) was always going to dominate, with Game of Thrones spinoff House of the Dragon managing eight nominations as well. Star Wars’ worthy spinoff Andor squeaked past the terrific final season of Better Call Saul with eight nominations to Saul’s seven.

Should have been nominated: Apple’s Bad Sisters (though Sharon Horgan got nominations for lead actress and writing). And once again, despite being one of TV’s most popular shows, Yellowstone is nowhere to be seen.

High-fives to Keri Russell for making the lead actress cut as Netflix’s The Diplomat and to The Crown’s Elizabeth Debicki and Better Call Saul’s excellent Rhea Seehorn for breaking the Succession and White Lotus stranglehold in the supporting categories.

Jennifer Coolidge in 'The White Lotus' Season 2

HBO

My early predictions (subject to change):

Drama Series: Succession

Lead Actor: Kieran Culkin, Succession (or one of the other Roys)

Lead Actress: Sarah Snook, Succession

Supporting Actor: A repeat for Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)

Supporting Actress: A repeat for Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus), and I’d loved to have seen Carol Burnett nominated for her surprise dramatic turn in Saul.

Comedy Series

Ted Lasso is in position for a three-peat, having won Best Comedy for its first two seasons, though I’m still holding out hope that ABC’s Abbott Elementary (the sole contender from the broadcast network world) might upset as it deserves to. The Bear could be a sleeper, and FX/Hulu was smart to release Season 2 while the ballots were being marked. As already noted, Jury Duty is the shocker in this category, and Wednesday would probably have been ignored if shown on any platform but Netflix.

Should have been nominated: Apple’s Shrinking (and the omission of Harrison Ford from the supporting category is an inexplicable snub), Peacock’s Poker Face and HBO’s lovely Somebody Somewhere.

Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Jeremy Allen White in 'The Bear'

My early predictions (subject to change):

Comedy Series: Abbott Elementary (though Ted Lasso will be tough to beat)

Lead Actor: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (but maybe he should qualify for drama?). Also: Where’s Steve Martin from Only Murders in the Building?

Lead Actress: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (don’t count out Christina Applegate for her personal struggle to complete Dead to Me)

Supporting Actor: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear (unless Ted Lasso sweeps and Brett Goldstein takes it again)

Supporting Actress: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, on the basis of the Friars Club roast episode (this is a toss-up, with Abbott’s Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James also worthy, and Ayo Edebiri from The Bear could sneak in)

Emmys 2023: Bob Odenkirk, Ali Wong & More Stars React to Their Nominations

Limited Series and TV Movies

Hugely disappointed that National Geographic’s stirring historical drama A Small Light, and its star Bel Powley, were shut out as well as FX/Hulu’s gripping The Patient (with Steve Carell and Domhnall Gleeson). And how did Apple’s gripping Black Bird and Showtime’s George & Tammy biopic lose out to the underwhelming Obi-Wan Kenobi from Disney+?