2023 Emmy Predictions for Drama Series & Performances: Matt Roush’s Picks
Emmys
Better late than never? That’s the hope when Fox airs the 75th Emmy Awards, delayed four months by the writers’ and actors’ strikes that paralyzed the TV industry in 2023. Some of the contenders, including the much-nominated second season of The White Lotus, aired all the way back in late 2022. (Anything since June of last year was not eligible.) So this year’s ceremony will be as much a memory tour as a guessing game as we try to predict what the TV Academy’s voters will reward.
Scroll down for our critic Matt Roush‘s picks for Outstanding Drama Series as well as the drama acting categories, ahead of the 2023 Emmy Awards.
75th Primetime Emmy Awards, Monday, January 15, 8/7c, Fox
Drama Series
Andor, Disney+
Better Call Saul, AMC
The Crown, Netflix
House of the Dragon, HBO
The Last of Us, HBO
Succession, HBO
The White Lotus, HBO
Yellowjackets, Showtime
The safest bet this year is a win for the riveting final season of Succession. I’m sad that Better Call Saul never got the Emmy love of its predecessor Breaking Bad, and if The Last of Us has a great sophomore season its time may come. But nothing can top the power plays that backfired so spectacular for the Roy family.
Will win:
Succession
Should win:
Succession
Should have been nominated:
The Good Fight, Paramount+
Lead Actor, Drama
Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
There’s a deserved groundswell of support for Saul’s Bob Odenkirk, and as the heroic lead of The Last of Us, the charismatic Pedro Pascal reminded us he should never be hidden under a Mandalorian helmet. The only way either is likely to triumph is if Succession’s Roy men cancel each other out. While it’s possible Jeremy Strong could win a second Emmy as the disastrously driven Kendall—Brian Cox would have fared better in supporting for his diminished role—most think it’s Kieran Culkin’s turn as Roman, the family’s conflicted man-child, whose meltdown at his father’s funeral was a sight to behold.
Most likely to win:
Kieran Culkin
Should win:
Kieran Culkin
Should have been nominated:
Diego Luna, Andor
Lead Actress, Drama
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession
Apologies to those who are bored by sweeps at awards shows, but it’s unlikely anyone can beat Sarah Snook as Succession’s alpha female.
Most likely to win:
Sarah Snook
Should win:
Sarah Snook
Should have been nominated:
Christine Baranski, The Good Fight
Supporting Actor, Drama
F. Murray Abraham as Bert Di Grasso, The White Lotus
Nicholas Braun as Greg Hirsch, Succession
Michael Imperioli as Dominic Di Grasso, The White Lotus
Theo James as Cameron Sullivan, The White Lotus
Matthew Macfadyen as Tom Wambsgans, Succession
Alan Ruck as Connor Roy, Succession
Will Sharpe as Ethan Spiller, The White Lotus
Alexander Skarsgård as Lukas Matsson, Succession
The dominance of Succession and The White Lotus in the supporting characters is overwhelming, and while the vacationers were fun to watch, this is Succession’s year. And while the competition is fierce, it’s hard to imagine Matthew Macfadyen not repeating as the “human grease stain” he described his smarmy character upon accepting his Golden Globe this year.
Most likely to win:
Matthew Macfadyen
Should win:
Matthew Macfadyen
Should have been nominated:
Will/Most Likely to Win: Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Should Win: Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Should Have Been Nominated: Moeka Hoshi, Shogun (as Usami Fuji, the widowed consort to the “barbarian” Blackthorne)
There are no luckier people than those who check into The White Lotus, because the Emmy voters can’t get enough of them. (Five in this category alone?) Everyone expects Jennifer Coolidge to repeat as the doomed Tanya (“These gays, they’re trying to murder me!”), though I was more fascinated this season by Aubrey Plaza’s nuanced work as a diffident spouse. And who wouldn’t love to see Rhea Seehorn finally recognized for her peerless performance as Saul’s savvy yet ultimately appalled partner in crime.
Most likely to win:
Jennifer Coolidge
Should win:
Aubrey Plaza or Rhea Seehorn
Should have been nominated:
Kelly Reilly, Yellowstone
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