2025 Emmy Predictions for Limited, Talk, Variety & Reality Categories: Critic’s Picks
Predicting who’ll win at the Emmy Awards is often a guessing game hampered by the knowledge that many of the same shows and stars get nominated year after year. This time around, the front-runners seem a bit more obvious, and yet there’s provocative new blood in the mix and always an opportunity for an upset or spoiler.
TV Guide Magazine and TV Insider senior critic Matt Roush weighs in with his analysis of the major categories, and we’ll see how it all plays out Sunday when the 77th Emmy Awards airs on CBS, with comedian Nate Bargatze as host.
77th Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 14, 8/7c, CBS and Paramount+
Limited Series or TV Movie
Adolescence, Netflix
Black Mirror, Netflix
Dying for Sex, FX/Hulu
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story, Netflix
The Penguin, HBO
Most Likely to Win: Adolescence
Should Win: Adolescence
Possible Spoiler: The Penguin (though a very long shot)
Should Have Been Nominated: Say Nothing (FX/Hulu)
Much like Netflix’s come-out-of-nowhere hit Baby Reindeer last year, the shattering Adolescence is in a field of its own. The Penguin exceeded all expectations with its Gothic underworld tragedy, and Dying for Sex was bracingly bold and graphically poignant, but it’s hard to imagine anything beating Adolescence.
Lead Actor, Limited Series or TV Movie
Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent
Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief
Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Most Likely to Win: Colin Farrell
Should Win: Colin Farrell
Possible Spoiler: Stephen Graham
Should Have Been Nominated: Kevin Kline, Disclaimer; Aaron Pierre, Rebel Ridge; Steve Carell, and Cory Michael Smith, Mountainhead
As the vengeful Oswald “The Penguin” Cobb, Colin Farrell checks off all of the award-bait boxes: physical transformation, florid accent, operatic range from bravado to despair. He has already won SAG and Golden Globe Awards, among others, for this showy role, so why stop now? His closest competitor is the great character actor Stephen Graham, a marvel of fury and anguish as the angry and grieving dad in Adolescence (also the series’ co-writer and executive producer).
Lead Actress, Limited Series or TV Movie
Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
Meghann Fahy, Sirens
Rashida Jones, Black Mirror
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex
Most Likely to Win: Cristin Milioti
Should Win: Cristin Milioti or Michelle Williams
Possible Spoiler: Williams
Should Have Been Nominated: Lola Pettigrew, Say Nothing; Amanda Seyfried, Long Bright River
Cristin Milioti killed, in more ways than one, as The Penguin‘s psychotic antagonist. It’s impossible to weigh her work against the fearless daring of Michelle Williams as the terminally ill heroine savoring each last erotic experience in Dying for Sex. Either win would be satisfying, so let’s leave it there.
Supporting Actor, Limited Series or TV Movie
Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Bill Camp, Presumed Innocent
Owen Cooper, Adolescence
Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex
Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent
Ashley Walters, Adolescence
Most Likely to Win: Owen Cooper
Should Win: Owen Cooper
Possible Spoiler: None
Should Have Been Nominated: Rhenzy Feliz, The Penguin; Kodi Smit McPhee, Disclaimer
Another slam dunk for Adolescence. The 15-year-old Owen Cooper, in his screen acting debut, is nothing short of riveting and a revelation in the demanding role of a teen accused of a classmate’s senseless murder. His churning and emotionally transparent performance veers from charming and shy to confrontational and angry in the showcase episode in which he’s interrogated for a full, unflinching hour by a psychologist. He’s unforgettable. He’s untouchable in this category.
Supporting Actress, Limited Series or TV Movie
Erin Doherty, Adolescence
Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent
Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin
Chloë Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex
Christine Tremarco, Adolescence
Most Likely to Win: Erin Doherty
Should Win: Erin Doherty or Deirdre O’Connell
Possible Spoiler: Jenny Slate
Should Have Been Nominated: Lesley Manville and Leila George, Disclaimer; Imogen Faith Reid, Good American Family
As the psychologist who meets her match with the young suspect of Adolescence, Doherty (best known previously from The Crown) more than holds her own in a demanding hour of TV that sets her apart from a strong field including Deirdre O’Connell as The Penguin’s grief-addled mother and Jenny Slate as the stalwart best friend in Dying for Sex, each an essential supporting performance. The prospect of a prime-time Adolescence sweep works in Doherty’s favor.
Talk Series
Most Likely to Win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Should Win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Possible Spoiler: The Daily Show
Should Have Been Nominated: Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) Everybody’s Live with John Mulaney (Netflix)
CBS’s unconscionable and lamentable cancellation of The Late Show during these politically turbulent times should be enough to propel Stephen Colbert‘s deserving team past the juggernaut of The Daily Show. It’s a moment of Emmy history waiting to happen. (And boo to the TV Academy and its arcane rules that limit the number of nominees, shutting out other worthy candidates.)
Scripted Variety Series
Most Likely to Win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Should Win: Saturday Night Live
Possible Spoiler: No possibilities
Should Have Been Nominated: Hard to say
Here’s another ridiculously underpopulated category, and few things are more predictable than a win for the provocative Last Week Tonight, which would make 10 in a row. I doubt the momentousness of Saturday Night Live‘s milestone 50th season will make much of a difference, but stranger things have happened.
Reality Competition Program
The Amazing Race, CBS
RuPaul’s Drag Race, MTV
Survivor, CBS
Top Chef, Bravo
The Traitors, Peacock
Most Likely to Win: The Traitors
Should Win: Survivor
Possible Spoiler: RuPaul’s Drag Race
Should Have Been Nominated: Dancing with the Stars, ABC; America’s Got Talent and The Voice, NBC
The Traitors has pop-cultural momentum, and Alan Cumming won for the second time (deservedly) as the puckish host, but I’m still waiting for the underappreciated Survivor, the show that pioneered the reality genre and wasn’t even nominated from 2006 to 2023, to get the recognition it deserves. Chances are the wait will continue for the foreseeable future.
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