2022 Emmy Predictions for Limited Series & Performances, Movies & Specials: Matt Roush’s Picks
Emmys
The Emmys are notoriously difficult to predict. Some winners keep winning year after year — until they don’t. You never know when a fresh newcomer will muscle their way into the winner’s circle or when a long overdue contender will finally get the recognition they’ve long deserved.
With that in mind, senior critic Matt Roush gives some educated guesses along with some personal picks and shout-outs to those who should have made the cut. The Emmys air Monday, September 12, on NBC.
Scroll down for Matt’s picks in the categories of Limited Series, Lead Actor and Actress in a Limited Series or Movie, and Supporting Actor and Actress in a Limited Series or Movie.
2022 Emmy Awards, Monday, September 12, 8/7c, NBC and Peacock
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Dopesick, Hulu
The Dropout, Hulu
Inventing Anna, Netflix
Pam & Tommy, Hulu
The White Lotus, HBO
Most Likely to Win: The White Lotus
Up until the Creative Arts Awards over Labor Day weekend, I was sure Dopesick would take the main prize in what has become one of the Emmys’ most prestigious categories. But when Lotus, the sole nominee not based on a true story, snagged an impressive five early Emmys, including for casting, Mike White’s deluxe satire set at a Hawaiian resort appears to have all the momentum.
Should Win: Dopesick
Though at times hard to watch and (because of frequent time-shifting) not always easy to follow, this unsparing dramatization of the opioid crisis was the most urgently compelling and impactful of the year’s many strong docudramas.
Should Have Been Nominated: Gaslit, Starz
The Watergate scandal has rarely been as vividly recreated as in Gaslit, a fast-paced account told from the perspective of whistle-blower Martha Mitchell (a terrifically flamboyant Julia Roberts). Other surprising omissions, from HBO and HBO Max: the intensely emotional Scenes from a Marriage remake and the apocalyptic Station Eleven.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Colin Firth, The Staircase
Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
Oscar Isaac, Scenes from a Marriage
Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Himesh Patel, Station Eleven
Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy
Most Likely to Win: Michael Keaton
As the rural doctor who becomes an addict, Keaton has already won multiple awards, including from the Screen Actors Guild. This is one of the year’s few slam-dunks.
Should Win: Keaton
He’s the heartbreaking core of Dopesick, one of his best performances to date.
Should Have Been Nominated
Ben Foster for HBO’s The Survivor and Samuel L. Jackson in Apple TV+‘s The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey. Both actors displayed remarkable emotional power and range: Foster as a damaged Holocaust survivor and Jackson as an elderly man emerging for too short a time from dementia. Each could have given Keaton some serious competition.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Toni Collette, The Staircase
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Lily James, Pam & Tommy
Sarah Paulson, Impeachment: American Crime Story
Margaret Qualley, Maid
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout
Most Likely to Win: Margaret Qualley
I’ll admit, this category stumps me. It could go any number of ways for all manner of surprising performances. Lily James brought unexpected empathy to her portrayal of embattled sex symbol Pamela Anderson and Amanda Seyfried was fascinating as she tackled the psyche of obsessive fraudster Elizabeth Holmes in what many other experts are handicapping as the top choice. I was most moved by Margaret Qualley as the working-class single mother yearning to escape poverty, and Emmy voters would be making a statement by rewarding this least sensational of the contenders.
Should Win: Qualley
But it’s hard to argue against either Lily James or Amanda Seyfried.
Should Have Been Nominated
As real-life and larger-than-life Washington, D.C. figures, Julia Roberts as unrepentant blabbermouth Martha Mitchell in Gaslit and Michelle Pfeiffer as the remarkable Betty Ford in Showtime’s The First Lady deserved recognition.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus
Jake Lacy, The White Lotus
Will Poulter, Dopesick
Seth Rogen, Pam & Tommy
Peter Sarsgaard, Dopesick
Michael Stuhlbarg, Dopesick
Steve Zahn, The White Lotus
Most Likely to Win: Murray Bartlett
Nearly everyone who checked into White Lotus got nominated, but consensus favors the Australian actor who stole every scene from his co-stars as the aggrieved hotel manager whose hospitality was colored by contempt for his more aggravating guests.
Should Win: Bartlett
Runner-up pick: Seth Rogen, who was a joy as the hapless catalyst of the Pam & Tommy sex-tape scandal.
Should Have Been Nominated
Matthew Goode for Paramount+‘s The Offer. As swaggering studio head Robert Evans during the making of The Godfather, Goode was great fun in a splendid change of pace. I also greatly enjoyed the colorful work of Shea Whigham (as a demented G. Gordon Liddy) and Dan Stevens (as ambitious John Dean) in Gaslit.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Connie Britton, The White Lotus
Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Alexandra Daddario, The White Lotus
Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Sydney Sweeney, The White Lotus
Mare Winningham, Dopesick
Most Likely to Win: Jennifer Coolidge
As the most neurotic and amusingly oversharing of the Lotus guests, fan-favorite Coolidge appears to be a sure bet, even against four co-stars from the same series.
Should Win: Kaitlyn Dever
No slight on Coolidge, who’s so terrific she’s returning for another Lotus season, but Dopesick’s Dever, as an unwitting victim of the OxyContin scourge, gives everything in the latest chapter of this remarkable young star’s career.
Should Have Been Nominated
Dominique Fishback for The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey. As the title character’s initially reluctant caregiver, Fishback was funny and touching in an underappreciated adaptation of Walter Mosley’s novel. More surprising: the omission of veteran actress Ellen Burstyn in The First Lady as Eleanor Roosevelt’s formidable mother-in-law, Sara Delano Roosevelt.
