Critic’s Notebook: Who Should/Will Win at the 2020 Golden Globes?

Matt Roush January 3, 2020, 11:30 am

11 Comments

Untitled design (5) — Steve Schofield/Amazon; Beth Dubber/Netflix; Liam Daniel/HBO

KE_208_GG_1205_2988_RT — Gareth Gatrell/BBCAmerica

CATEGORY: Best TV Series — Drama

*Big Little Lies*, HBO

*The Crown*, Netflix

*Killing Eve*, BBC America

*The Morning Show*, Apple TV+

*Succession*, HBO

Untitled design (1) — Sophie Mutevelian/Netflix; Graeme Hunter/HBO

Some very buzzy shows here, and the momentum seems to be with HBO’s *Succession*, whose second season was hair-raisingly good. But given the Globes voters’ international bent, and the engrossing nature of each and every episode of *The Crown*, it’s something of a toss-up.

ea4d6926992125ada67d9d6c5a653dab0758d2c10d7f88e2ec0c8aae8eb62edd99f93e2398401a5ecbe794bb88a11dd1 — Graeme Hunter/HBO

Most Likely to Win

*Succession*

TheCrown_308_Unit_01273_R — Des Willie/Netflix

Should Win

*The Crown*

Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show — Apple

CATEGORY: Actress, TV Drama

Jennifer Aniston, *The Morning Show*

Olivia Colman, *The Crown*

Jodie Comer, *Killing Eve*

Nicole Kidman, *Big Little Lies*

Reese Witherspoon, *The Morning Show*

d5e50a47c6fa0a04bb368e702062d5b7122e9fe2494321fdc93fa549f67ea57e32795e5047cf93d851bdf1b4a996a389 — Merie W. Wallace/HBO

You can’t go wrong with any of these stellar performances, and Aniston’s triumphant return to episodic TV is the sort of stunt the Globes typically loves to celebrate. Colman’s more subtle work as the mature monarch leading the new cast of *The Crown* shouldn’t be easily dismissed, though. It could go either way.

The_Morning_Show_Unit_Photo_04 — Apple

Most Likely to Win

Jennifer Aniston

TheCrown_S3_301_001_R — Netflix

Should Win

Olivia Colman

Mr. Robot - Season 4 — Elizabeth Fisher/USA Network

CATEGORY: Actor, TV Drama

Brian Cox, *Succession*

Kit Harington, *Game of Thrones*

Rami Malek, *Mr. Robot*

Tobias Menzies, *The Crown*

Billy Porter, *Pose*

Untitled design (2) — Macall Polay/FX; Graeme Hunter/HBO

If *Succession* is the Globes’ favored drama this year, then Cox as the blustery and cunning patriarch will be hard to beat. But I sense a possible upset by *Pose*‘s flamboyant Porter, who himself was denied a year ago by Richard (*Bodyguard*) Madden’s surprise win. You know you want to see what he’s wearing, at the very least.

4d5f2cf34a7c115b3b3e725389af53f2f916be741d3d710239b0f233973fabc9008bdb97de7b76c34a31b178bbc857d6 — Graeme Hunter/HBO

Most Likely to Win

Brian Cox

POSE_204_7651r — Macall Polay/FX

Should Win

Billy Porter

KOMINSKY_206_Unit_02300R — Michael Yarish/Netflix

CATEGORY: Best TV Series — Musical or Comedy

*The Kominsky Method*, Netflix

*The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel*, Amazon Prime Video

*The Politician*, Netflix

*Barry*, HBO

*Fleabag*, Amazon Prime Video

the-marvelous-mrs-maisel-season-3-MRSM_300_C_305_29_6_0_rgb — Amazon

The last two winners in this category (*Kominsky* and *Maisel*) are still in the running, but it seems impossible that anything can dethrone this season’s awards darling *Fleabag* for its brilliant second (and presumably final) round. The Globes can be unpredictable — though surely not so glamour-crazed as to reward Ryan Murphy’s uneven *Politician*? Put your money on *Fleabag*.

Steve Schofield/Amazon

Most Likely To/Should Win

*Fleabag*

DTM_101_Unit_05421_R — Saeed Adyani/Netflix

CATEGORY: Actress, TV Musical/Comedy

Christina Applegate, *Dead to Me*

Rachel Brosnahan, *The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel*

Kirsten Dunst, *On Becoming a God in Central Florida*

Natasha Lyonne, *Russian Doll*

Phoebe Waller-Bridge, *Fleabag*

1461494-1118763-zoomedR — Netflix

Taking a sharp but small one-woman play and building it into an international sensation, *Fleabag*‘s writer-star Phoebe Waller-Bridge dominates a strong field of funny, flawed comic women.

fleabag-season-two-fleabag-2_20181006_d33_ep04_0140R_rgb — Steve Schofield/Amazon

Most Likely to/Should Win

Phoebe Waller-Bridge

The_Politician_S01E01_0m20s483f_R — Netflix

CATEGORY: Actor, TV Musical/Comedy

Michael Douglas, *The Kominsky Method*

Bill Hader, *Barry*

Ben Platt, *The Politician*

Paul Rudd, *Living with Yourself*

Ramy Youssef, *Ramy*

KOMINSKY_201_Unit_00389R — Michael Yarish/Netflix

Having rewarded Old Hollywood a year ago with Douglas’s win for the terrific freshman season of *The Kominsky Method*, the Globes are likely to go for something more adventurous and follow the Emmys’ lead with a Globe for Hader as the conflicted hit man/actor. Still, I can’t help but think that the very likable Paul Rudd’s demanding double act as a mensch and his clone could steal the show.

ba9cd8b46a3836ddce372dc1ecbc463599a1543ad6e0ca0fb68900d596ec137affe25a3ebe7e0a2959f91fc3ace57c57 — Aaron Epstein/HBO

Most Likely to Win

Bill Hader

LWY_PaulPaul_104_COUCH_R — Netflix

Should Win

Hader or Paul Rudd

Sam Rockwell as Bob Fosse, Michelle Williams as Gwen Verdon - 'All I Care About Is Love' — Michael Parmelee/FX

CATEGORY: Best Limited Series or TV-Movie

*Catch-22*, Hulu

*Chernobyl*, HBO

*Fosse/Verdon*, FX

*The Loudest Voice*, Showtime

*Unbelievable*, Netflix

Untitled design (3) — Beth Dubber/Netflix; Liam Daniel/HBO

HBO’s devastating docudrama about the 1986 nuclear-plant disaster and the ensuing government cover-up has all the elements of a winner. If any underdog has a chance, it’s *Unbelievable*, a searing and wonderfully acted true-crime story of sexual assault and detection, which came out of nowhere in the endless tide of Netflix tide to become a favorite on year-end lists.

2a92154a95ad048e6e4ce01d490c57eb4946b442d91ec73ffc8b4ddbf508230bbf8233d478ed8eedac0cfd2c489cfb0b25a889bc6eface5b10bf57c6a845d450 — Liam Daniel/HBO

Most Likely to Win

*Chernobyl*

UNBELIEVABLE_105_Unit_00110RC — Beth Dubber/Netflix

Should Win

*Unbelievable*

CP5_102_Unit_02442R — Atsushi Nishijima/Netflix

Should Have Been Nominated

*When They See Us*, Netflix

56d1f8e4787c7c3d06104c4bc64df280cf7090b731a812b4cf4495e51e96f70c63a7273e9ab4372f98e1898810771dcb — Robert Viglasky/HBO

CATEGORY: Actress, Limited Series/Movie

Kaitlyn Dever, *Unbelievable*

Joey King, *The Act*

Helen Mirren, Catherine the Great

Merritt Wever, *Unbelievable*

Michelle Williams, *Fosse/Verdon*

Untitled design (4) — Beth Dubber/Netflix

A triple-threat at acting, singing and dancing, Michelle Williams’ portrayal of the Broadway legend Gwen Verdon on and off stage is as much of a shoo-in as Renée Zellweger’s *Judy* in the movie categories. Either of the *Unbelievable* actresses would be as worthy a choice, but Williams has owned the awards stage this year.

Fosse Verndon - Michelle Williams as Gwen Verdon — Pari Dukovic/FX

Most Likely to/Should Win

Michelle Williams

Sam Rockwell as Bob Fosse in Fosse Verdon - 'Providence' — Nicole Rivelli/FX

CATEGORY: Actor, Limited Series/Movie

Christopher Abbott, *Catch-22*

Sacha Baron Cohen, *The Spy*

Russell Crowe, *The Loudest Voice*

Jared Harris, *Chernobyl*

Sam Rockwell, *Fosse/Verdon*

DSCF0364.RAF — Axel Decis/Netflix

Any other year, the Borat prankster’s impressive dramatic turn as an Israeli spy would be a front-runner. But the race in this category is between Harris as the principled Russian scientist and Crowe for his dramatic transformation into Fox News founder Roger Ailes. I’m betting the guy with all the padding gets the Globe.

Russell Crowe as Roger Ailes in The Loudest Voice — JoJo Whilden/SHOWTIME.

Most Likely to Win

Russell Crowe

0bf4770983fb0805179c7d5289daf4f6babdf0f69233e7a6e7e4439a570a7ba8b06c8efec9e8f1f08960b35e9efd65cb8e2bf2b45321ece10f57f3403fb13391 — Liam Daniel/HBO

Should Win

Jared Harris

b1f5049a11faacf93d93aa7dabdc350d379286926a6805dcae3b553afa1485e1 — Liam Daniel/HBO

CATEGORY: Supporting Actress in Series or Limited Series

Patricia Arquette, *The Act*

Helena Bonham Carter, *The Crown*

Toni Collette, *Unbelievable*

Meryl Streep, *Big Little Lies*

Emily Watson, *Chernobyl*

UNBELIEVABLE_103_Unit_02735R — Beth Dubber/Netflix

Helena Bonham Carter was a terrifically entertaining Princess Margaret — she even charmed LBJ! — while Toni Collette was my favorite female TV detective of the year, and Patricia Arquette was a memorably mad mama in *The Act*. But is anyone going to deny Meryl Streep a Globe (and an opportunity for another great speech) for stealing the second season of *Lies* from her starry ensemble? Not likely.

3ba8dbf7e4bf2d4231174cd660b91eea1f73b4161ab1f1140347a01a1125cba4aed92ad26ab62c06b1b6fd845dc68137 — Merie W. Wallace/HBO

Most Likely to Win

Meryl Streep

Rellik — Sophie Mutevelian/Netflix

Should Win

Helena Bonham Carter

f95b6a3629d3e8f46567ccc1967d1c6c5a58332b1ff9edcbab26c3bb5a017811862589d6c2f8f069a727cf761a6379b73d627878771daab2dd5bfe7b6dfe67bf — Liam Daniel/HBO

CATEGORY: Supporting Actor in Series or Limited Series

Alan Arkin, *The Kominsky Method*

Kieran Culkin, *Succession*

Andrew Scott, *Fleabag*

Stellan Skarsgård, *Chernobyl*

Henry Winkler, *Barry*

d9a408a50a94f43b169ae8227396ec68784d4a15599d11ad8d252748da93075c7e32f0ea5a91250500367e50430e845a — Isabella Vosmikova/HBO

Two words: Hot Priest. As *Fleabag*‘s caustic romantic foil, Andrew Scott should have this grab-bag category locked up by bringing so much smoldering intensity to an instantly iconic character. Skarsgård has the dramatic chops, and Winkler is beloved in Hollywood, but this is *Fleabag*‘s year, and why not just bow to its greatness?

fleabag-season-two-fleabag-2_20180917_d18_ep02_0110R_rgb — Steve Schofield/Amazon

Most Likely to/Should Win

Andrew Scott

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Happy New Awards Year! As the Golden Globes barely waits for the confetti to blow away to kick off the 2020 awards season, we engage in the annual crapshoot of trying to figure out what and who the 90-some members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will honor.

TV is something of an afterthought here — no directing or writing awards, plus the supporting categories are a mishmash of series and limited-series actors — and we’ve already noted how for the first time ever, not a single broadcast-network series or star made the cut.