Critic's Notebook: Who Should/Will Win at the 2020 Golden Globes?

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Steve Schofield/Amazon; Beth Dubber/Netflix; Liam Daniel/HBO
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Gareth Gatrell/BBCAmerica

CATEGORY: Best TV Series — Drama

Big Little Lies, HBO

The Crown, Netflix

Killing Eve, BBC America

The Morning Show, Apple TV+

Succession, HBO

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Sophie Mutevelian/Netflix; Graeme Hunter/HBO

Some very buzzy shows here, and the momentum seems to be with HBO’s Succession, whose second season was hair-raisingly good. But given the Globes voters’ international bent, and the engrossing nature of each and every episode of The Crown, it’s something of a toss-up.

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Graeme Hunter/HBO

Most Likely to Win

Succession

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Des Willie/Netflix

Should Win

The Crown

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Apple

CATEGORY: Actress, TV Drama

Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show

Olivia Colman, The Crown

Jodie Comer, Killing Eve

Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies

Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show

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Merie W. Wallace/HBO

You can’t go wrong with any of these stellar performances, and Aniston’s triumphant return to episodic TV is the sort of stunt the Globes typically loves to celebrate. Colman’s more subtle work as the mature monarch leading the new cast of The Crown shouldn’t be easily dismissed, though. It could go either way.

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Apple

Most Likely to Win

Jennifer Aniston

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Netflix

Should Win

Olivia Colman

Mr. Robot - Season 4
Elizabeth Fisher/USA Network

CATEGORY: Actor, TV Drama

Brian Cox, Succession

Kit Harington, Game of Thrones

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Tobias Menzies, The Crown

Billy Porter, Pose

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Macall Polay/FX; Graeme Hunter/HBO

If Succession is the Globes’ favored drama this year, then Cox as the blustery and cunning patriarch will be hard to beat. But I sense a possible upset by Pose‘s flamboyant Porter, who himself was denied a year ago by Richard (Bodyguard) Madden’s surprise win. You know you want to see what he’s wearing, at the very least.

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Graeme Hunter/HBO

Most Likely to Win

Brian Cox

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Macall Polay/FX

Should Win

Billy Porter

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Michael Yarish/Netflix

CATEGORY: Best TV Series — Musical or Comedy

The Kominsky Method, Netflix

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Amazon Prime Video

The Politician, Netflix

Barry, HBO

Fleabag, Amazon Prime Video

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Amazon

The last two winners in this category (Kominsky and Maisel) are still in the running, but it seems impossible that anything can dethrone this season’s awards darling Fleabag for its brilliant second (and presumably final) round. The Globes can be unpredictable — though surely not so glamour-crazed as to reward Ryan Murphy’s uneven Politician? Put your money on Fleabag.

Fleabag
Steve Schofield/Amazon

Most Likely To/Should Win

Fleabag

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Saeed Adyani/Netflix

CATEGORY: Actress, TV Musical/Comedy

Christina Applegate, Dead to Me

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida

Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll

Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag

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Netflix

Taking a sharp but small one-woman play and building it into an international sensation, Fleabag‘s writer-star Phoebe Waller-Bridge dominates a strong field of funny, flawed comic women.

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Steve Schofield/Amazon

Most Likely to/Should Win

Phoebe Waller-Bridge

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Netflix

CATEGORY: Actor, TV Musical/Comedy

Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method

Bill Hader, Barry

Ben Platt, The Politician

Paul Rudd, Living with Yourself

Ramy Youssef, Ramy

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Michael Yarish/Netflix

Having rewarded Old Hollywood a year ago with Douglas’s win for the terrific freshman season of The Kominsky Method, the Globes are likely to go for something more adventurous and follow the Emmys’ lead with a Globe for Hader as the conflicted hit man/actor. Still, I can’t help but think that the very likable Paul Rudd’s demanding double act as a mensch and his clone could steal the show.

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Aaron Epstein/HBO

Most Likely to Win

Bill Hader

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Netflix

Should Win

Hader or Paul Rudd

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Michael Parmelee/FX

CATEGORY: Best Limited Series or TV-Movie

Catch-22, Hulu

Chernobyl, HBO

Fosse/Verdon, FX

The Loudest Voice, Showtime

Unbelievable, Netflix

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Beth Dubber/Netflix; Liam Daniel/HBO

HBO’s devastating docudrama about the 1986 nuclear-plant disaster and the ensuing government cover-up has all the elements of a winner. If any underdog has a chance, it’s Unbelievable, a searing and wonderfully acted true-crime story of sexual assault and detection, which came out of nowhere in the endless tide of Netflix tide to become a favorite on year-end lists.

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Liam Daniel/HBO

Most Likely to Win

Chernobyl

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Beth Dubber/Netflix

Should Win

Unbelievable

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Atsushi Nishijima/Netflix

Should Have Been Nominated

When They See Us, Netflix

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Robert Viglasky/HBO

CATEGORY: Actress, Limited Series/Movie

Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable

Joey King, The Act

Helen Mirren, Catherine the Great

Merritt Wever, Unbelievable

Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon

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Beth Dubber/Netflix

A triple-threat at acting, singing and dancing, Michelle Williams’ portrayal of the Broadway legend Gwen Verdon on and off stage is as much of a shoo-in as Renée Zellweger’s Judy in the movie categories. Either of the Unbelievable actresses would be as worthy a choice, but Williams has owned the awards stage this year.

FOSSE VERDON -- Pictured: Michelle Williams as Gwen Verdon. CR: Pari Dukovic/FX
Pari Dukovic/FX

Most Likely to/Should Win

Michelle Williams

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Nicole Rivelli/FX

CATEGORY: Actor, Limited Series/Movie

Christopher Abbott, Catch-22

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Spy

Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice

Jared Harris, Chernobyl

Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon

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Axel Decis/Netflix

Any other year, the Borat prankster’s impressive dramatic turn as an Israeli spy would be a front-runner. But the race in this category is between Harris as the principled Russian scientist and Crowe for his dramatic transformation into Fox News founder Roger Ailes. I’m betting the guy with all the padding gets the Globe.

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JoJo Whilden/SHOWTIME.

Most Likely to Win

Russell Crowe

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Liam Daniel/HBO

Should Win

Jared Harris

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Liam Daniel/HBO

CATEGORY: Supporting Actress in Series or Limited Series

Patricia Arquette, The Act

Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown

Toni Collette, Unbelievable

Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies

Emily Watson, Chernobyl

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Beth Dubber/Netflix

Helena Bonham Carter was a terrifically entertaining Princess Margaret — she even charmed LBJ! — while Toni Collette was my favorite female TV detective of the year, and Patricia Arquette was a memorably mad mama in The Act. But is anyone going to deny Meryl Streep a Globe (and an opportunity for another great speech) for stealing the second season of Lies from her starry ensemble? Not likely.

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Merie W. Wallace/HBO

Most Likely to Win

Meryl Streep

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Sophie Mutevelian/Netflix

Should Win

Helena Bonham Carter

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Liam Daniel/HBO

CATEGORY: Supporting Actor in Series or Limited Series

Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method

Kieran Culkin, Succession

Andrew Scott, Fleabag

Stellan Skarsgård, Chernobyl

Henry Winkler, Barry

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Isabella Vosmikova/HBO

Two words: Hot Priest. As Fleabag‘s caustic romantic foil, Andrew Scott should have this grab-bag category locked up by bringing so much smoldering intensity to an instantly iconic character. Skarsgård has the dramatic chops, and Winkler is beloved in Hollywood, but this is Fleabag‘s year, and why not just bow to its greatness?

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Steve Schofield/Amazon

Most Likely to/Should Win

Andrew Scott

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Happy New Awards Year! As the Golden Globes barely waits for the confetti to blow away to kick off the 2020 awards season, we engage in the annual crapshoot of trying to figure out what and who the 90-some members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will honor.

TV is something of an afterthought here — no directing or writing awards, plus the supporting categories are a mishmash of series and limited-series actors — and we've already noted how for the first time ever, not a single broadcast-network series or star made the cut.

Golden Globes 2020: Stars React to Their Nominations (PHOTOS)See Also

Golden Globes 2020: Stars React to Their Nominations (PHOTOS)

The Golden Globe Award nominees were announced Monday, and the TV stars who have been recognized are celebrating.

But that won’t stop us from weighing in on who should and is most likely to take home a Globe in the gallery above.

77th Annual Golden Globe Awards, Sunday, January 5, 8 pm ET/5 pm PT, NBC