The Emmy Awards are by tradition among the hardest to predict, because it’s often impossible to know just when a show or star’s moment in the spotlight has arrived—or when the Emmy voters will turn away from the tried and true to celebrate the new kid on the block.
Ahead of the 2021 Primetime Emmys, Senior Critic Matt Roush takes a crack at reading the tea leaves to pick the presumed winners, while revealing which nominees are the most deserving and lamenting the most obnoxious snubs.
Scroll down to see Matt’s picks in the categories of Comedy Series, Lead Comedy Actor and Actress, Supporting Comedy Actor and Actress, and Guest Comedy Actor and Actress.
73rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 19, 8/7c, CBS
Outstanding Comedy Series
Black-ish (ABC)
Cobra Kai (Netflix)
Pen15 (Hulu)
Emily in Paris (Netflix)
Hacks (HBO Max)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
The Frontrunners
Lots of choices — too many, if they could make room for the insipid Emily in Paris — but there’s only one true contender: Apple’s feel-good breakout Ted Lasso, a comedy about good sports that only the most Scrooge-like anti-sentimentalist could resist. HBO Max enters the field with two very different buzzworthy shows: the thriller-esque Flight Attendant and Hacks, which has the bonus of being a comedy about comedians. Still, cheering for Ted is your best bet.
Most Likely to Win
Ted Lasso
Should Win
Ted Lasso
Should Have Been Nominated
The final season of CBS’ underappreciated Mom
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
William H. Macy, Shameless
Kenan Thompson, Kenan
The Frontrunners
We hate to sound like a broken record, but Ted Lasso is shaping up to be this year’s Schitt’s Creek (except for its first, instead of last, season), showing signs of a near-sweep in the top comedy categories. That includes Jason Sudeikis’ charming title performance as the folksy Kansas coach swimming upstream in hostile British waters as he learns the game of soccer.
Most Likely to Win
Jason Sudeikis
Should Win
Jason Sudeikis
Should Have Been Nominated
Alan Tudyk, Resident Alien
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Aidy Bryant, Shrill
Jean Smart, Hacks
Allison Janney, Mom
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
The Frontrunners
Ted Lasso doesn’t qualify here, so the race is between a veteran three-time Emmy winner and an overdue first-time nominee. Jean Smart has heretofore won for guest and supporting roles, but dominates the field for her star turn in Hacks as a stand-up comedy legend fighting to hold on to her career. Kaley Cuoco, who deserved recognition for being such a great foil as Penny on The Big Bang Theory, came into her own in the flighty title role of The Flight Attendant, putting a madcap twist on a Hitchcockian heroine as a drunken damsel in constant distress. This is a tough call, but Smart is the knockout here, and the (sorry) smart choice.
Most Likely to Win
Jean Smart
Should Win
Jean Smart
Should Have Been Nominated
Jane Levy, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Brendan Hunt, Ted Lasso
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Swift, Ted Lasso
Paul Reiser, The Kominsky Method
Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Hacks
The Frontrunners
Will the four (!) nominees from Ted Lasso cancel each other out? And will that open the door for Saturday Night Live’s long-overdue and longest-tenured performer, Kenan Thompson, or possibly SNL ensemble player Bowen Yang for his breakout season? These are good and hard-to-answer questions. If Ted sweeps, the most likely (and deserving) winner is Brett Goldstein as the lovably foul-mouthed sports star Roy Kent. But few will complain if the hard-working Kenan (also nominated for his self-titled sitcom) finally takes the stage.
Most Likely to Win
Kenan Thompson
Should Win
Brett Goldstein
Should Have Been Nominated
Nico Santos, Superstore
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live
Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live
Rosie Perez, The Flight Attendant
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
The Frontrunners
Another showdown between the Ted Lasso and Saturday Night Live ensembles, with the momentum seeming to favor the glamorous Hannah Waddingham as Ted’s biscuit-craving team owner. Hannah Einbinder could be a sleeper pick as Hacks’ millennial ingrate getting a master class in comedy, and SNL’s Cecily Strong had an especially strong (sorry) year. But the Ted train is likely to drive Waddingham into the winners’ circle.
Most Likely to Win
Hannah Waddingham
Should Win
Hannah Waddingham (or Ted’s adorable Juno Temple)
Should Have Been Nominated
Lecy Goranson, The Conners
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