Fall’s New Shows: Which Ones Could Be Renewed? Which Have Us Worried?
We’re just over a month into the 2021-2022 season and four new shows have already been picked up for full seasons. So, we’re taking a look at the ratings and trying to predict what the future holds for the rest of the new fall slate.
So far, CBS has ordered full seasons for two of its procedural dramas in already-established franchises, FBI: International and NCIS: Hawai’i, along with new comedy Ghosts. And ABC has shown the same faith in The Wonder Years. Meanwhile, the top-rated debut is over on NBC (La Brea), and chances are if its ratings hold, good news could be coming.
But what about the rest of the lineup? Which shows may be at risk of being canceled? Which could go either way? Which do we think could be renewed for a second season? Scroll down to take a look at our predictions, using the ratings so far (the key demo among adults 18-49 and total viewers).
4400
Prediction: High Risk of Cancellation
4400 didn’t get off to the best start (0.1 rating, 0.54 million viewers) and it dropped by 20% and 33% respectively with its second episode.
Average (two episodes): 0.09 rating, 0.45 million viewers
The Big Leap
Prediction: Could Go Either Way
The Big Leap has, for the most part, lost viewers each week since the premiere (1.47 million). However, with Episode 7, it was up 21% in viewers (and 38% in the key demo) from the previous week.
Average (seven episodes): 0.24 rating, 1.28 million viewers
CSI: Vegas
Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal
CSI‘s return to CBS for Vegas is designed to be a 10-episode season, but chances are the network will keep the show going as long as the new team is a hit (and especially if William Petersen and Jorja Fox stay for another season).
Average (four episodes): 0.4 rating, 3.73 million viewers
FBI: International
Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal
FBI: International has already been picked up for a full season, and while it was down in both viewers and the key demo with Episode 5, that also came after two weeks off. Plus, the all-FBI night seems to be working for CBS.
Average (five episodes): 0.54 rating, 5.90 million viewers
Ghosts
Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal
After airing the first two episodes back-to-back (0.56 rating, 5.52 million viewers), Ghosts was then up in its second week (0.61, 5.27 million viewers). It dipped in the third week (after scoring a full-season pick-up — we were right about that initial prediction — the day of the new episode) but was up and reached series highs in the fourth.
Average (five episodes in four weeks): 0.57 rating, 5.45 million viewers
La Brea
Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal
La Brea is the top-rated new show this fall, and it’s been mostly steady through just over half its first season (other than a drop opposite World Series Game 6 on November 2).
Average (six episodes): 0.6 rating, 5.13 million viewers
Legends of the Hidden Temple
Prediction: High Risk of Cancellation
The CW’s new version of the kids’ show was up in its third week, but that was still only with 290,000 people tuning in.
Average (four episodes): 0.06 rating, 0.24 million viewers
NCIS: Hawai’i
Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal
The latest NCIS spinoff has dipped almost every week (except for the fifth episode) since its premiere (0.51 rating, 6.58 million viewers) but it’s already scored a full-season pickup and the franchise has been very successful for CBS. (Plus, the network may take into account how much longer NCIS will continue on without Mark Harmon.)
Average (six episodes): 0.48 rating, 5.56 million viewers
Ordinary Joe
Prediction: Could Go Either Way
Ordinary Joe has dipped nearly every week since its premiere (0.52 rating, 3.85 million viewers, which remain series highs).
Average (seven episodes): 0.37 rating, 2.74 million viewers
Our Kind of People
Prediction: Could Go Either Way
Our Kind of People lost viewers each week since the premiere (1.65 million) until Episode 5, and we don’t think the break for the World Series is going to help.
Average (five episodes): 0.32 rating, 1.47 million viewers
Queens
Prediction: Could Go Either Way
A significant drop in the key demo between the first two episodes (0.36 to 0.31) and Queens losing viewers each week can’t be a good sign. That being said, we don’t see it being canceled too quickly with its cast, so it may have a chance.
Average (three episodes): 0.32 rating, 1.47 million viewers
The Wonder Years
Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal
While The Wonder Years has been up and down since its premiere (0.67 rating, 3.23 million viewers), it’s on par with the rest of ABC’s Wednesday comedy lineup and was already picked up for a full season (we were right about that initial prediction).
Average (six episodes): 0.50 rating, 2.62 million viewers
Conversation41 Comments
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O
I adore the Big Leap. I wish more people were watching it.
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B
I LOVE The Big Leap and can't wait to see if it gets renewed!!
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O
Me too!! I’d hate for it to be canceled
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G
NCIS new ORLEANS should not have been cancelled also debris was better than the newbies
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O
I’m still salty that MacGuyver was cancelled.
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B
ME too! I miss it! I keep retweeting to #SaveMacgyver ! Whole bunch of fans on doing the same!
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O
How can they even tell how many people are watching these shows? I DVR everything so I can watch when I feel like it and skip commercials. I also watch On Demand.
I don't usually get in to TV shows during its first season (I made an exception this year with CSI: Vegas), because networks are so quick to cancel them. It's a wonder any shows ever make it past the first season these days.
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C
I agree. I DVR everything, I never watch anything in real time. And most of the time I don't watch within 3 days of airing. I pick what I want to watch from the DVR depending on my mood each night and some shows I hold on to to see if they are going to be a waste of time or get picked up.
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C
DVR viewings do not matter since you skip commercials. Only broadcast viewing and some streaming within 24 hours are counted, because those people are likely to suffer advertising.
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R
La Brea, honestly, one of the worst shows ever, stopped watching after episode 2.
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G
La Brea is awesome.
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B
I really enjoy Ghosts
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G
Will never,ever invest in another NBC show. Twice burned (Timeless and Manifest) is enough for me! Both canceled after left hanging on major cliffhangers. Fool me once…
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G
Timeless got a movie to tie up loose ends.
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B
I agree. Manifest was a good show. Someone said NetFlix??
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C
Yes, Netflix is either doing a wrap-up movie or one more season. I love Manifest and am so glad they are doing this. I wish all canceled shows that ended on a cliffhanger did a wrap-up movie!
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O
I hope Big Leap doesn’t get canceled. It’s a good show.
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R
None of these shows would be missed, but the “best” of the group, thanks totally to clever casting, is “ Ghosts”.
Like many of us say ( and I worked in broadcast media) “this show isn’t bad, for broadcast TV”!
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R
Maybe “none” would be missed BY YOU but speaking for myself, I’d hate to lose CSI:Vegas! I loved it the first time in its original state & I love it now. I hated it was cancelled in 2015 & am so thankful it’s returned! I hope Marg will come back since she hasn’t signed up with her show that was canceled then picked up by Netflix. Anyway just don’t say “none would be missed” unless you add the words “by you” to that.
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C
CBS needs to scrap NCIS: Hawaii.
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G
CSI started slow because of establishing new characters and storylines, but is getting much better every week. Grissom and Sara are the glue right now. Everything else new this season I've already tuned out.
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O
I really think now that Gibbs I'd gone and the Voice is ending that people should give the Big Leap a chance, I catch it on Hulu and thoroughly enjoy it. I hope it gets a chance for a full season.
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O
NCIS Hawaii doesn’t have the right cast to grab you from the start. Not a fan but my Fish record everything
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O
Ordinary Joe is fascinating and so much fun, keeps me guessing....very unique show...hope it is renewed....NCIS Hawaii is awful, lead female should be replaced...
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P
We have really been enjoying Ghost. It is very entertaining. We like it so much that I told my husband they would probably cancel it. That is what they do.
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O
I LOVE The Big Leap,CSI Vegas and Ghosts please renew.😍😍😍😍
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O
Not a new show, but Big Sky's horrible second season thus far should doom it-- I'm done after just two episodes. Unwatchable.
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C
I agree. The network advertised and hyped it as an R. P. drama. His character was killed off so quickly, and it became about the killer. Lame!!!
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B
I agree I'm mad they killed him off so soon it was like they used RP to get us to watch! I follow him on twitter and all his fans were mad he left so soon! I don't blame them! I was for sure! 😡
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B
Getting pretty frustrated... Looking for new episodes of Ghosts... Not seeing any, so re-watching previous ones! That's all fine and dandy, but there are so few of them I pretty much have them memorized by now. We really love this show!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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P
Was diffantly liking debris as well
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G
I love Big Sky. So they have a different plot line, but it keeps me in suspense. Please keep this show going!
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G
And who plays that ugly dude Wolf?
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G
It's a cute show.
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G
La Brea is stupid.
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O
NCIS New Orleans should not have been cancelled, Keep Ncis LA, KEEP NCIS even without Mark Harmon. NCIS Hawai'i is too slow moving and the group does not have any family ties, the lead actress thinks too much of herself, have not watched Ghost yet.
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O
Queens, The Big Leap, and Our kind of people are great shows that would survive on a streaming station like Netflix. Unfortunately, not as many people watch network tv these days. However, these are great shows. The Big Leap is funny and a tear-jerker, but it may be ahead of its time with mixing so many genres ( reality, drama, comedy, etc.). Queens and Our Kind of people need a little help with writing and changing of time slot. I hope they get a second chance to improve.😃
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O
LA Brea another fun nd different show....keeps you on your toes...hope it is renewed...
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B
kstranall of these show look awful, have not seen a one, most of stuff on network tv is not worth watching
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R
Don't even know why they thought trying to 'redo' The 4400, was a good idea.
The original was not even that good, but this version is an insult to anybody involved in the original.
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O
Ghost is bad, I can’t believe they canceled Mom for this!
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