Fall’s New Shows: Which Ones Could Be Renewed? Which Have Us Worried?

FBI International, The Wonder Years, Ghosts
Katalin Vermes/CBS; ABC/Matt Sayles; CBS

We’re just over a month into the 2021-2022 season and four new shows have already been picked up for full seasons. So, we’re taking a look at the ratings and trying to predict what the future holds for the rest of the new fall slate.

So far, CBS has ordered full seasons for two of its procedural dramas in already-established franchises, FBI: International and NCIS: Hawai’i, along with new comedy Ghosts. And ABC has shown the same faith in The Wonder Years. Meanwhile, the top-rated debut is over on NBC (La Brea), and chances are if its ratings hold, good news could be coming.

But what about the rest of the lineup? Which shows may be at risk of being canceled? Which could go either way? Which do we think could be renewed for a second season? Scroll down to take a look at our predictions, using the ratings so far (the key demo among adults 18-49 and total viewers).

Brittany Adebumola as Shanice Mitchell, TL Thompson as Dr. Andre in 4400
Matt Dinerstein/The CW


Prediction: High Risk of Cancellation

4400 didn’t get off to the best start (0.1 rating, 0.54 million viewers) and it dropped by 20% and 33% respectively with its second episode.

Average (two episodes): 0.09 rating, 0.45 million viewers

The Cast of The Big Leap
Jean Whiteside/FOX

The Big Leap

Prediction: Could Go Either Way

The Big Leap has, for the most part, lost viewers each week since the premiere (1.47 million). However, with Episode 7, it was up 21% in viewers (and 38% in the key demo) from the previous week.

Average (seven episodes): 0.24 rating, 1.28 million viewers

William Petersen as Dr. Gil Grissom, Jorja Fox as Sara Sidle in CSI Vegas
Erik Voake/CBS

CSI: Vegas

Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal

CSI‘s return to CBS for Vegas is designed to be a 10-episode season, but chances are the network will keep the show going as long as the new team is a hit (and especially if William Petersen and Jorja Fox stay for another season).

Average (four episodes): 0.4 rating, 3.73 million viewers

Heida Reed, Luke Kleintank, Vinessa Vidotto, Carter Redwood in FBI International
Katalin Vermes/CBS

FBI: International

Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal

FBI: International has already been picked up for a full season, and while it was down in both viewers and the key demo with Episode 5, that also came after two weeks off. Plus, the all-FBI night seems to be working for CBS.

Average (five episodes): 0.54 rating, 5.90 million viewers

Asher Grodman, Rose McIver, Utkarsh Ambudkar, Richie Moriarty in Ghosts


Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal

After airing the first two episodes back-to-back (0.56 rating, 5.52 million viewers), Ghosts was then up in its second week (0.61, 5.27 million viewers). It dipped in the third week (after scoring a full-season pick-up — we were right about that initial prediction — the day of the new episode) but was up and reached series highs in the fourth.

Average (five episodes in four weeks): 0.57 rating, 5.45 million viewers

Jack Martin as Josh Harris, Natalie Zea as Eve Harris, Chiké Okonkwo as Ty Coleman in La Brea
Sarah Enticknap/NBC

La Brea

Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal

La Brea is the top-rated new show this fall, and it’s been mostly steady through just over half its first season (other than a drop opposite World Series Game 6 on November 2).

Average (six episodes): 0.6 rating, 5.13 million viewers

Cristela Alonzo in Legends of the Hidden Temple
Adam Rose/The CW

Legends of the Hidden Temple

Prediction: High Risk of Cancellation

The CW’s new version of the kids’ show was up in its third week, but that was still only with 290,000 people tuning in.

Average (four episodes): 0.06 rating, 0.24 million viewers

Jason Antoon, Vanessa Lachey, Alex Tarrant, Yasmine Al-Bustami in NCIS Hawaii
Zack Dougan/CBS

NCIS: Hawai’i

Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal

The latest NCIS spinoff has dipped almost every week (except for the fifth episode) since its premiere (0.51 rating, 6.58 million viewers) but it’s already scored a full-season pickup and the franchise has been very successful for CBS. (Plus, the network may take into account how much longer NCIS will continue on without Mark Harmon.)

Average (six episodes): 0.48 rating, 5.56 million viewers

James Wolk as Joe Kimbreau in Ordinary Joe
Fernando Decillis/NBC

Ordinary Joe

Prediction: Could Go Either Way

Ordinary Joe has dipped nearly every week since its premiere (0.52 rating, 3.85 million viewers, which remain series highs).

Average (seven episodes): 0.37 rating, 2.74 million viewers

Yaya DaCosta in Our Kind of People
Brownie Harris/FOX

Our Kind of People

Prediction: Could Go Either Way

Our Kind of People lost viewers each week since the premiere (1.65 million) until Episode 5, and we don’t think the break for the World Series is going to help.

Average (five episodes): 0.32 rating, 1.47 million viewers

Brandy, Nadine Velazquez, Eve, Naturi Naughton in Queens
ABC/Kim Simms


Prediction: Could Go Either Way

A significant drop in the key demo between the first two episodes (0.36 to 0.31) and Queens losing viewers each week can’t be a good sign. That being said, we don’t see it being canceled too quickly with its cast, so it may have a chance.

Average (three episodes): 0.32 rating, 1.47 million viewers

The cast of Wonder Years - Amari O’Neil as Cory Long, Milan Ray as Keisa Clemmons, Elisha Williams as Dean Williams, Saycon Sengbloh as Lillian Williams, Dulé Hill as Bill Williams, Laura Kariuki as Kim Williams, and Julian Lerner as Brad Harper
ABC/Matt Sayles

The Wonder Years

Prediction: Likely Season 2 Renewal

While The Wonder Years has been up and down since its premiere (0.67 rating, 3.23 million viewers), it’s on par with the rest of ABC’s Wednesday comedy lineup and was already picked up for a full season (we were right about that initial prediction).

Average (six episodes): 0.50 rating, 2.62 million viewers