2025 Emmy Predictions for Drama Categories: Critic’s Picks
Predicting who’ll win at the Emmy Awards is often a guessing game hampered by the knowledge that many of the same shows and stars get nominated year after year. This time around, the front-runners seem a bit more obvious, and yet there’s provocative new blood in the mix and always an opportunity for an upset or spoiler.
TV Guide Magazine and TV Insider senior critic Matt Roush weighs in with his analysis of the major categories, and we’ll see how it all plays out Sunday when the 77th Emmy Awards airs on CBS, with comedian Nate Bargatze as host.
77th Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 14, 8/7c, CBS and Paramount+
Drama Series
Andor, Disney+
The Diplomat, Netflix
The Last of Us, HBO
Paradise, Hulu
The Pitt, HBO Max
Severance, Apple TV+
Slow Horses, Apple TV+
The White Lotus, HBO
Most Likely to Win: Severance
Should Win: The Pitt
Possible Spoilers: The Pitt or Andor
Should Have Been Nominated: Interview With the Vampire (AMC), Black Doves (Netflix), The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu), The Day of the Jackal (Peacock)
As in the comedy field, where fellow Apple TV+ hit The Studio dominates, the show with the most nominations has the highest odds, and in drama, that would be Severance with a year’s-best 27. Having already reaped six trophies on the Creative Arts night, the surreal mind-teaser is like nothing else on TV. But there’s an especially strong No. 2 contender with classic TV in its DNA: The Pitt, a wrenching hospital drama that sets up a heart-vs-head battle for the ages. Severance is cool. The Pitt comes in hot. As someone who was left underwhelmed by Severance‘s big “Cold Harbor” reveal and emotionally overwhelmed by The Pitt‘s cascading crises and uniformly excellent ensemble, I’m rooting for the underdog. There’s also a vocal contingent that believes the excellent Star Wars spinoff Andor deserves the top prize, which would be an even more stunning upset.
Lead Actor
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Most Likely to Win: Noah Wyle
Should Win: Noah Wyle
Possible Spoiler: Adam Scott
Should Have Been Nominated: Diego Luna, Andor; Eddie Redmayne, The Day of the Jackal
Noah Wyle has come full circle, having earned five nominations back in the day as a supporting player in ER for his breakout role as John Carter. Now running the ER as The Pitt‘s empathetic and tormented Dr. Robby, Wyle is unquestionably a leader, commanding one of TV’s finest ensembles. In any other year, I’d be fully in the corner of Adam Scott as Severance‘s conflicted Mark S., and his climactic conversation between his “innie” and “outie” selves could very well earn him the Emmy. It’s a 50/50 tossup, but I’m leaning heavily toward Wyle as a well-deserved career win. If Pedro Pascal had been submitted more appropriately as a supporting actor for this season of The Last of Us, he’d have my vote, because his tragic absence haunted the entire second season. But in this category, not a chance.
Lead Actress
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Britt Lower, Severance
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Most Likely to Win: Kathy Bates
Should Win: Bates or Britt Lower
Possible Spoiler: Britt Lower
Should Have Been Nominated: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale; Carrie Preston, Elsbeth; Marisa Abela, Industry
As the folksy faux Matty Matlock, Kathy Bates is poised to make history at 77 as the oldest winner of a lead drama actress Emmy, and she’s earned every one of the accolades she’s received for the role. (She probably would have won the SAG and Golden Globe trophies earlier this year if Shogun hadn’t still been in the running.) This is her 15th nomination, with two prior wins for supporting or guest roles (on Two and a Half Men and American Horror Story: Coven). It’s a juicy and multilayered character that she makes the most of, and her main competition is Severance‘s Britt Lower in an equally tricky role that involves duality. A Severance sweep is Lower’s best chance for a win, but this won’t be her last opportunity.
Supporting Actor
Zach Cherry, Severance
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
James Marsden, Paradise
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Tramell Tillman, Severance
John Turturro, Severance
Most Likely to Win: Walton Goggins
Should Win: John Turturro or Jason Isaacs
Possible Spoiler: Tramell Tillman
Should Have Been Nominated: Ben Whishaw, Black Doves; Jack Lowden, Slow Horses; Patrick Ball and Gerran Howell, The Pitt
Notice a trend here? Excepting James Marsden as Paradise‘s doomed president, everyone in this category is from either The White Lotus or Severance, making you wonder if Emmy voters watched anything else. It also makes picking a favorite in this category a challenge. The versatile Walton Goggins, a three-time nominee and an industry favorite since his breakthrough roles in The Shield and Justified, seems to be ahead of the Lotus pack for his brooding performance, though I was more drawn to Jason Isaacs’ troubled family man. Severance‘s Tramell Tillman as the enigmatic Lumon manager likewise appears to be favored over the pathos of John Turturro’s exiled Irving B., but that’s another tough call. This category could go any number of ways.
Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Severance
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Julianne Nicholson, Paradise
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus
Most Likely to Win: Carrie Coon
Should Win: Katherine LaNasa
Possible Spoiler: Parker Posey
Should Have Been Nominated: Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif, and Isa Briones, The Pitt; Allison Janney, The Diplomat; Isabela Merced, The Last of Us; Skye P. Marshall, Matlock
The only way someone from The White Lotus doesn’t win in this category is if the four (!) contenders cancel each other out, which would open the door for Katherine LaNasa to break through as she deserves to as The Pitt‘s invaluably scrappy, resourceful and maternal charge nurse, Dana, the heart and soul of that series. Odds, however, favor Carrie Coon, the splendid star of so many HBO series (The Leftovers, The Gilded Age) who added yet another memorable character to her resumé as the least content of the Thailand tourists. Parker Posey could also easily take the prize, filling the scene-stealing void left by Jennifer Coolidge as the season’s drawling mama hen of privilege and denial.
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