2019 Emmy Predictions for Limited Series & TV Movies: Matt Roush Gives His Picks
CATEGORY: Outstanding Limited Series
Chernobyl, HBO
Escape at Dannemora, Showtime
Fosse/Verdon, FX
Sharp Objects, HBO
When They See Us, Netflix
Oscars aren’t this hard to predict. The four extraordinary docudramas in the category are each worthy, and the hard-to-watch/harder-to-shake Chernobyl could eke out a win for its degree of difficulty. My own sensibilities are tuned to the show-bizzy milieu of the brilliantly cast Fosse/Verdon, and Escape at Dannemora exceeded expectations of the genre with its vividly drawn and desperate characters. But no series had the social impact and relevance of When They See Us, Ava DuVernay’s searing and heartbreaking account of the injustice perpetrated on the now-exonerated Central Park Five. The performances by the young men in this ensemble are nothing short of remarkable.
Most Likely to Win
When They See Us (with Chernobyl a viable choice, especially considering HBO’s track record in this category)
Should Win
When They See Us
CATEGORY: Outstanding TV Movie
Black Mirror: Bandersnatch, Netflix
Brexit, HBO
Deadwood: The Movie, HBO
King Lear, Amazon Prime Video
My Dinner with Hervé, HBO
If anything can stop Black Mirror‘s recent roll in a category that has long been underwhelming, HBO’s elegiac conclusion to the Deadwood saga proved far more satisfying than the interactive gimmick of Bandersnatch. Though Brexit is topical and King Lear eternal, Deadwood gives us what we want from TV: emotional closure.
Most Likely to Win
Deadwood: The Movie
Should Win
Deadwood: The Movie
CATEGORY: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape At Dannemora
Aunjanue Ellis, When They See Us
Joey King, The Act
Niecy Nash, When They See Us
Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
Officially this year’s toughest category to call. I’ve been wavering back and forth for weeks between Michelle Williams‘ dynamic channeling of the great Broadway baby Gwen Verdon and Patricia Arquette‘s equally astonishing transformation into prison-escape accomplice Joyce “Tilly” Mitchell. Amy Adams is just as memorable as the self-abusing anti-heroine of Sharp Objects, and Joey King a revelation as the creepily childlike victim and victimizer in The Act. (The two fine actresses from When They See Us feel more like supporting players.) If only because she had to sing and dance as well as emote, and did it all brilliantly, I’ll put my money on Williams.
Most Likely to Win
Michelle Williams (but don’t count out Patricia Arquette)
Should Win
Michelle Williams (though I’d be OK with a three-way tie with Patricia Arquette and Amy Adams, all great)
CATEGORY: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Mahershala Ali, True Detective
Benicio del Toro, Escape at Dannemora
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Jared Harris, Chernobyl
Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us
Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon
Three Oscar winners, and I’m going with the relative unknown? Until the last days of Emmy eligibility, I would have sworn that nothing could stop Mahershala Ali from adding an Emmy to his two Oscars. He nailed one of the season’s most challenging and affecting roles, playing a detective over multiple time periods as he tried to salvage his fading memory. But then came When They See Us and Jharrel Jerome (who co-starred with Ali in Moonlight) in a heart-wrenching performance as the real-life Korey Wise of the Central Park Five. The only actor to play both the younger and older versions of his character, as we followed him through his years-long ordeal in the adult prison system, Jerome emerged as the star to beat. This is meant as no slight to his fellow nominees, including Hugh Grant in a startling change-of-pace as a loathsome closeted politician, Benecio del Toro as a menacing jailbird plotting his escape and Jared Harris as a Russian physicist tragically unable to stop the nuclear disaster of Chernobyl. All are worth watching.
Most Likely to Win
Jharrel Jerome (with Mahershala Ali a safe second choice)
Should Win
Jharrel Jerome
CATEGORY: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Patricia Arquette, The Act
Marsha Stephanie Blake, When They See Us
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Vera Farmiga, When They See Us
Margaret Qualley, Fosse/Verdon
Emily Watson, Chernobyl
In a face-off of two terrific performers, each playing neurotic Southern mothers damaging their offspring because of Munchausen syndrome by proxy, Patricia Arquette is once again a close second, this time to Patricia Clarkson‘s more elegantly sinister performance in the twisted Sharp Objects. Really, though, it’s a coin toss. Both were memorable monsters.
Most Likely to Win
Patricia Clarkson (unless this is Patricia Arquette’s consolation prize for not winning for Escape at Dannemora — and chances are she could win two Emmys)
Should Win
Patricia Clarkson, more haunting and less pathetic in her villainy
CATEGORY: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Asante Blackk, When They See Us
Paul Dano, Escape at Dannemora
John Leguizamo, When They See Us
Stellan Skarsgard, Chernobyl
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Michael K. Williams, When They See Us
While it could be argued that Ben Whishaw and Paul Dano are co-lead actors in their miniseries (opposite Hugh Grant and Benecio del Toro, respectively), Whishaw has the sympathetic edge as the woefully marginalized, and nearly murdered, ex-lover of a powerful politician. Michael K. Williams earns emotional honors as the tragically guilt-ridden father of a boy trapped in the justice system in When They See Us. Another tough choice.
Most Likely to Win
Ben Whishaw
Should Win
Ben Whishaw or Michael K. Williams
With one epic exception — Game of Thrones and its record 32 nominations — this year’s Emmy Awards (airing Sunday, 8/7c, on Fox) could be the toughest to predict in ages.
With so much great work being produced on multiple platforms, many categories feel like total toss-ups. But that’s never stopped us from trying to pick the winners!
Click through the gallery above for some analysis that could help you make an educated guess, or possibly just confuse things further, in this year’s limited series and TV movie categories.
