2025 Emmy Predictions for Comedy Categories: Critic’s Picks
Emmys
Predicting who’ll win at the Emmy Awards is often a guessing game hampered by the knowledge that many of the same shows and stars get nominated year after year. This time around, the front-runners seem a bit more obvious, and yet there’s provocative new blood in the mix and always an opportunity for an upset or spoiler.
TV Guide Magazine and TV Insider senior critic Matt Roush weighs in with his analysis of the major categories, and we’ll see how it all plays out Sunday when the 77th Emmy Awards airs on CBS, with comedian Nate Bargatze as host.
77th Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 14, 8/7c, CBS and Paramount+
Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary, ABC
The Bear, FX/Hulu
Hacks, HBO Max
Nobody Wants This, Netflix
Only Murders in the Building, Hulu
Shrinking, Apple TV+
The Studio, Apple TV+
What We Do in the Shadows, FX
Most Like to Win: The Studio
Should Win: The Studio
Possible Spoiler: Hacks
Should Have Been Nominated: Somebody Somewhere (HBO), Ghosts (CBS), A Man on the Inside (Netflix), Poker Face (Peacock)
This is shaping up to be a banner year for Apple TV+. The streamer boasts the two series in both comedy and drama with the most nominations, and given Hollywood’s fondness for shows spoofing its own industry (Hacks won the top prize last year), Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg‘s inventive freshman satire about the movie industry, with a whopping 23 nominations (nine of which it took home at the Creative Arts ceremony last weekend), is the clear favorite. With the buzz over the not-really-a-comedy The Bear fading, Hacks has the best shot at an upset for the season that made Deborah Vance (multiple winner Jean Smart) a late-night star — for a while. The year’s other newbie, Netflix’s romcom Nobody Wants This, has its champions, but feels awfully slight by comparison.
Lead Actor, Comedy Series
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Most Likely to Win: Seth Rogen
Should Win: Rogen or Martin Short
Possible Spoiler: Jeremy Allen White
Should Have Been Nominated: Ted Danson, A Man on the Inside; Nathan Lane, Mid-Century Modern
As auteur and star of The Studio, Seth Rogen stepped out of his manchild comfort zone (on display currently in Platonic) to stretch as the idealistic studio head trapped in a corporate farce of epic proportions. It’s his to lose, although the much broader comedy stylings of Only Murders’ Martin Short (the only star from that show nominated, and recipient of a SAG Award this year) could earn the indefatigable Martin Short his first Emmy as Oliver Putnam after four tries (he has two prior wins as a writer and host). The Bear‘s Jeremy Allen White is coming off two consecutive wins, and the Emmys love a good streak, but this year, that will most likely come to a halt. Kudos to Adam Brody for making the cut as the “hot rabbi” of Nobody Wants This.
Lead Actress, Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba, The Residence
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jean Smart, Hacks
Most Likely to Win: Jean Smart
Should Win: Jean Smart
Possible Spoiler: Ayo Edebiri
Should Have Been Nominated: Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face; Bridget Everett, Somebody Somewhere
In the tradition of Candice Bergen (Murphy Brown) and Julia-Louis Dreyfus (Veep), who won repeatedly for a career-defining role, Jean Smart is favored to win her fourth Emmy in five years (Hacks wasn’t eligible in 2023) as Deborah Vance, whose triumphant if truncated run as Queen of Late Night provided the meatiest material for anyone in this category. Ayo Edebiri, who won in the supporting category for The Bear‘s first season, would have a better shot if the show were still on an Emmy roll. And while Uzo Aduba is a confirmed awards darling, with three Emmys and five SAG Awards, her eccentric detective in The Residence has even less of a chance after Netflix chose not to renew the series.
Supporting Actor, Comedy Series
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Jeff Hiller, Somebody Somewhere
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Most Likely to Win: Ike Barinholtz
Should Win: Barinholtz or Harrison Ford
Possible Spoilers: Ford or Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Should Have Been Nominated: Paul W. Downs, Hacks; Ted McGinley, Shrinking; Brandon Scott Jones, Ghosts; Matt Bomer and Nathan Lee Graham, Mid-Century Modern
This is one of the trickier categories. If The Studio sweeps as expected, Ike Barinholtz should be swept into the winners’ circle as the hapless studio exec who enjoys a viral moment of glory at the Golden Globes. It’s a breakthrough role for a popular comic actor. But at 83, Harrison Ford would make Emmy history should his superb underplaying as Shrinking‘s resident curmudgeon be acknowledged. And never count out The Bear‘s Ebon Moss-Bachrach, who has won the last two years. as “cousin” Richie.
Supporting Actress, Comedy Series
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Kathryn Hahn, The Studio
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Most Likely to Win: Hannah Einbinder
Should Win: Hannah Einbinder
Possible Spoilers: Liza Colón-Zayas or Catherine O’Hara
Should Have Been Nominated: Linda Lavin, Mid-Century Modern; Megan Stalter, Hacks; Rebecca Wisocky, Ghosts
I’m still not over the Academy neglecting to nominate the late Linda Lavin for her indelible swan song as the tart den mother of Mid-Century Modern, but I’ll forgive them if Hannah Einbinder finally takes home the gold as Hacks’ long-suffering comedy writer-turned-showrunner. The Bear‘s Liza Colón-Zayas starred in that show’s most memorable episode from last season, but many feel that’s what earned her last year’s Emmy in this category. Einbinder has been an also-ran for too long. This is the year to correct that oversight. But if The Studio proves to be truly unstoppable, O’Hara’s bitter dethroned exec has an edge over Hahn’s over-the-top marketing maven.
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