‘Morning Joe’ Panel Make Bold Election Predictions: Who Will Win & More

Morning Joe delivered its final midterm election predictions on Tuesday morning (November 3), with every panelist forecasting a significant victory for the Democrats.

Hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski were joined by national affairs analyst John Heilemann, Politico’s Jonathan Martin, political advisor Mark McKinnon, and former U.S. senator of Missouri, Claire McCaskill, to discuss the midterm elections.

At the end of the segment, Scarborough said, “We need predictions really quickly. What does it look like in the Senate?”

“I think 53-47 is probably the safe place,” Martin said, predicting the Democrats will take the Senate. “And the real question is, do Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina all flip? And if any of them do, you’re looking more at 55, I think.”

“Fifty-four Democrats in the Senate,” Heilemann predicted, adding, “235 Democrats in the House.”

Morning Joe panel gives their election predictions—one peaks at 55 DEM Senate https://t.co/R9Y9IpET29

— Clipping Wings (@ClippingWings) November 3, 2026

McKinnon was even more bullish, saying, “Get out the long boards; the wave is coming, 55.”

McCaskill was a little more cautious, adding, “I say 53 in the Senate, but I have a lot of PTSD.”

Scarborough himself didn’t give his exact numbers, but he backed up the panelists, saying, “Those sound about right.”

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The Morning Joe predictions came after the New York Times/Siena released its last Senate poll before the elections, which predicted a “blue wave” for the Democrats. The poll had Democratic candidates leading in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed led Republican candidate Mike Rogers by 11 points.

To win 53 seats, the minimum that each panelist predicted, the Democrats would have to win six of the seven swing races in Texas, Maine, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio. And to gain the 55 that McKinnon predicted, they’d need to flip a deep-red state such as Florida, Mississippi, or South Carolina.

While most pollsters predict Democrats will gain control of the House and the Senate, critics have noted that polls have been wrong before, especially in underestimating the GOP. Journalist and political commentator Piers Morgan warned that it could be an “existential night for pollsters” if the Democrats end up losing.