10 Tightest 2026 Emmy Races — And Who Will Win
Emmys
Predicting the Emmys can be a crapshoot many years, because it’s often hard to know whether a show or a star’s winning streak is about to come to an end or if a new contender has what it takes to upset the field. I’ve been giving it my best educated guess for TV Insider as an expert since its inception, and this year is no exception.
Here are 10 of the races that are almost too close to call, but with new information gleaned from last weekend’s Creative Arts ceremony, we’ll give it a shot.
78th Emmy Awards, Monday, September 14, 8/7c, NBC, Streaming Live on Peacock
1. Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary, ABC
The Bear, FX
Hacks, HBO Max
Margo’s Got Money Troubles, Apple TV
Nobody Wants This, Netflix
Only Murders in the Building, Hulu
Shrinking, Apple TV
Widow’s Bay, Apple TV
Most likely to Win: Widow's Bay
Most likely to upset: Hacks
Should Be in the Conversation: The Comeback
Should Have Been Nominated: Murderbot
Emmy history will tell you that the show with the most nominations is the front-runner — especially when that show had a great final season and well deserves its victory lap. Such is the case with HBO Max’s Hacks, which gave the great Jean Smart a terrific sendoff, setting her up for her fifth win in the show-stopping role of a lifetime as Deborah Vance. (This would be her eighth overall!) But late in the season, along came Apple TV’s inspired hybrid of horror and humor, Widow’s Bay, a cult hit that garnered a staggering 19 nominations, second only to Hacks’ 24. At last weekend’s Creative Arts ceremony, Widow’s Bay collected eight Emmys, including Guest Actress for Betty Gilpin (over Hacks’ heavily favored Kaitlin Olson) and for casting, giving the show a surge of momentum in the year’s most nail-biting category. Could Widow’s Bay be this year’s The Studio, an Apple TV disrupter? We’ll find out on Monday.
2. Supporting Actress, Comedy Series
Dale Dickey, Widow’s Bay
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Kate O’Flynn, Widow’s Bay
Michelle Pfeiffer, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Megan Stalter, Hacks
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Most Likely to Win: Kate O'Flynn
Most Likely to Upset: Hannah Einbinder
Should Be in the Conversation: Michelle Pfeiffer
Should Have Been Nominated: Ashley Padilla, Saturday Night Live
Much like with the main comedy series category, Hacks‘ Hannah Einbinder was seemingly cruising along to a second consecutive win (following her overdue first) until Widow’s Bay reared its quirky head, sparked by Kate O’Flynn’s hilariously unnerving performance as the haunted island’s second most neurotic inhabitant. (The first would be Comedy Actor front-runner Matthew Rhys as the mayor.) Now it’s a toss-up, and much will depend on how deeply the Emmy voters choose to embrace Hacks for its last hurrah and how enthusiastically they welcome the noisy new kid on the block. Given recent evidence, Kate should be preparing her speech.
3. Supporting Actor, Comedy Series
Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Nick Offerman, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Stephen Root, Widow’s Bay
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Most Likely to Win: Harrison Ford
Most Likely to Upset: Stephen Root
Should Be in the Conversation: Nick Offerman
Should Have Been Nominated: Ted McGinley, Shrinking
I’m fairly confident Harrison Ford will take home a much-overdue Emmy as Shrinking‘s curmudgeonly and ailing mentor Paul Rhoades, but then, I was expecting Michael J. Fox to win as Paul’s fellow traveler in the Guest Actor category — though it’s hard to argue with the posthumous award given to Rob Reiner for the otherwise marginalized The Bear. The fact that Ford has yet to win and that Shrinking has yet to pick up a single award in any Emmy category after three seasons suggests that the legendary actor is vulnerable to an upset should Hacks or Widow’s Bay go on a sweep.
4. Supporting Actor, Drama
Most Likely to Win: Patrick Ball
Most Likely to Upset: Tom Pelphrey
Should Be in the Conversation: Jack Lowden
Should Have Been Nominated: James Marsden, Your Friends & Neighbors
Things get complicated when multiple members of an ensemble cast get nominated. And while Patrick Ball is favored to join last year’s The Pitt winner Katherine LaNasa in the winner’s circle as the reformed addict returning to the grind, Shawn Hatosy won last year in the Guest Actor category and has a shot to repeat. Pitt‘s biggest competition (and my pick): Tom Pelphrey as Task‘s tragically unlucky drug-dealing dad. Ball and the rest of his TV doctors will have other chances. But given that Task was inexplicably passed over in the Drama Series category, Pelphrey might still be an underdog.
5. Limited Series
Most Likely to Win: DTF St. Louis
Most Likely to Upset: Beef
Should Be in the Conversation: Love Story
Should Have Been Nominated: Death by Lightning, Netflix
I’m still not over the voters ignoring the electrifying historical docudrama Death by Lightning in favor of lesser-grade potboilers like All Her Fault and The Beast in Me. That said, the early money was on the second season of the dramedy anthology Beef to repeat the sweep of 2023’s first season. But HBO’s offbeat and poignant drama DTF St. Louis has all of the momentum after last weekend’s Creative Arts ceremony, when the series won for writing and direction (both for series creator Steven Conrad) and in both supporting actor categories, rewarding David Harbour and Linda Cardellini. (Whether they should have been nominated as lead actors is an argument for a different column.)
6. Actor, Limited Series
Riz Ahmed, Bait
Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
Oscar Isaac, Beef
Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me
Most Likely to Win: Oscar Isaac
Most Likely to Upset: Matthew Rhys
Should Be in the Conversation: Charlie Hunnam
Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Shannon and/or Matthew Macfadyen, Death by Lightning
Thanks to the actors from DTF St. Louis declaring themselves supporting players, Beef‘s Oscar Isaac unquestionably had the — pardon the expression — meatiest role in this category. (Unless you count Charlie Hunnam’s human meat suit as the grisly Ed Gein.) But don’t count out Emmy favorite Matthew Rhys, a former winner for The Americans and twice nominated this year, who made the most of his showy antagonism in The Beast in Me. He’ll make some Oscar history if he walks away with two (including his expected win as Lead Actor in a Comedy for Widow’s Bay).
7. Actress, Limited Series
Claire Danes, The Beast in Me
Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures
Carey Mulligan, Beef
Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette
Most Likely to Win: Carey Mulligan
Most Likely to Upset: Sally Field
Should Be in the Conversation: Sarah Pidgeon
Should Have Been Nominated: Allison Janney, Miss You, Love You
Most experts are expecting Beef to snag both lead acting awards the way the series did the first time around (for Ali Wong and Steven Yeun), although Season 2 didn’t generate nearly the buzz or acclaim. And as sharp as Carey Mulligan was, her competition is fierce. Sally Field is an industry favorite, and her film Remarkably Bright Creatures just won for Outstanding Television Movie (against so-so competition). As the doomed Kennedy bride, Sarah Pidgeon gave a star-is-born performance that shouldn’t be ignored, plus Love Story won the coveted casting award, which often foreshadows a win. Claire Danes and Sarah Snook are past Emmy champs, so this category really does feel up for grabs.
8. Writing, Drama Series
The Diplomat, “Amangansett”
The Pitt, “12:00 P.M.”
The Pitt, “1:00 P.M.”
Pluribus, “We Is Us”
Slow Horses, “Scars”
Task, “A Still Small Voice”
Most Likely to Win: Pluribus
Most Likely to Upset: The Pitt
Should Be in the Conversation: Slow Horses
Should Have Been Nominated: Paradise, “Graceland”
Even if The Pitt sweeps, as expected, for its second season, it will be hard to beat Vince Gilligan‘s script for the stunning pilot episode of Pluribus, setting up one of the year’s most original and fascinating high concepts. The Pitt‘s best hope is for the episode set during the noon hour, featuring the tragic passing of fan-favorite patient Louie, which won Ernest Harden Jr. a Guest Actor Emmy this year for the role.
9. Writing, Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary, “Team Building”
The Chair Company, “Life Goes By Too Fast”
The Comeback, “Valerie Does It All”
Hacks, “Hacks”
Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat, “Mergers and Acquisitions”
Widow’s Bay, “Welcome to Widow’s Bay”
Most Likely to Win: Hacks
Most Likely to Upset: Widow’s Bay
Should Be in the Conversation: The Comeback
Should Have Been Nominated: The Lowdown, “Pilot”
As a reflection of the neck-and-neck race between Hacks‘ final season and Widow’s Bay‘s freshman run, this category offers a choice between Hacks‘ more-than-satisfying series finale and Widow’s Bay‘s arresting pilot. In this case, sentiment will most likely rule, but there’s always the possibility of an upset.
10. Variety Series
The Daily Show, Comedy Central
Jimmy Kimmel Live!, ABC
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, HBO
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, CBS
Saturday Night Live, NBC
This newly recombined category (merging Variety Talk and Scripted Variety) is an odd one, because the TV Academy has reclassified it this year as an “area award,” meaning one or all five nominees could potentially receive an Emmy if they receive enough “Yes” affirmation from voters. So count on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert to repeat last year’s win in acknowledgement of its (sadly) final season and Last Week Tonight with John Oliver to return for an 11th time. Whether Saturday Night Live or the other contenders will be so lucky remains to be seen.
The rest of the major races to be presented Monday seem fairly clear cut, and these are the top picks (any other result would be a true upset):
Outstanding Drama Series: The Pitt, HBO Max
Lead Actress, Drama: Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
Lead Actor, Drama: Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Lead Actress, Comedy: Jean Smart, Hacks
Lead Actor, Comedy: Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay
Supporting Actress, Drama: Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Competition Program: The Traitors, Peacock
Directing, Comedy Series: Widow’s Bay
Directing, Drama Series: Pluribus
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If I tune in to the Emmys, it will be to see Mariska. Otherwise, it is pointless for me as I don't subscribe to multiple channels. I miss the old days when network series were of Emmy caliber.
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